HLRGazette Archives

Relive some of our best stories.

  • Increase font size
  • Default font size
  • Decrease font size

The State of Texas

E-mail Print PDF
Texas Economic Outlook
The following is the latest report on the Texas economy from the office of the Texas State Comptroller Susan Combs:
June median home sale prices climbed 3.5 percent from May totals, the fifth straight month of increases.
The Texas Industrial Production Index for June gained more than three percent year-over-year from June 2009 totals.
According to the Texas comptroller's office, the Texas economy, the world's 12th largest, continues to fare better than those of many other states. But Texas felt the effects of the worldwide recession during 2009. The state is emerging from the recession more quickly than the nation, but the pace of recovery is slow.
According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the U.S. Economy peaked in December 2007 and entered recession. The Texas economy continued to grow through most of 2008, with employment peaking in August that year, then Texas joined the nation in losing jobs. During 2009, Texas' gross state product (GSP) declined more slowly than the U.S. economy (-1.7 percent versus -2.5 percent).
Despite the state's economy contracting in 2009, Texas' relative economic advantage should continue as the state and U.S. economies have begun to recover in 2010. Although job growth will continue to lag the renewed expansion of economic production, the Comptroller's office estimates that the Texas' GSP will grow from a reduced base by 3.0 percent during calendar 2010. While the nation is expected to continue losing jobs at a rate of -0.5 percent in 2010, Texas is on track to add 0.2 percent employment during the year.
Jobs
· Texas' July 2010 unemployment rate was 8.2 percent, the same as the previous month.
· Total nonfarm employment in Texas increased by 4,600 jobs in July, the seventh consecutive month of net gains.
· The U.S. lost 130,000 nonfarm jobs in July 2010. There was a loss of 202,000 government jobs in July 2010, reflecting a decrease of 143,000 temporary federal census workers and layoffs by state and local governments. The drop in government jobs was in part offset by a 71,000 job gain in private sector employment. The July U.S. unemployment rate was unchanged from June at 9.5 percent. Between July 2009 and July 2010, the U.S. economy shed about 52,000 jobs.
· The Texas unemployment rate has been at or below the national rate for 43 consecutive months.
Housing
· Thus far, Texas has weathered the national real estate crunch without significant damage to property values. Sales and construction activity dropped to pre-2007 levels but have begun to show signs of recovery in 2010.
· 6,027 building permits for single-family homes were issued in June 2010, 653 less than in June 2009. In the 12 months ending in June 2010, 69,655 permits were issued, 15 percent more than in the 12 months ending in June 2009.
· Multi-family building permits rose from 1,399 in June 2009 to 1,941 in June 2010. During the 12 months ending in May 2010, 13,698 permits were issued, 58 percent less than in the 12 months ending in June 2009.
· Sales of existing single-family home decreased by 3.5 percent in June 2010 over the previous month, to a total of 21,717. June home sales were 0.4 percent lower than during June 2009.
· In Texas, the median price for existing single-family homes fell by 1.2 percent from June 2009 to June 2010.
· Texas experienced 11,727 foreclosures filings in July 2010.For most of calendar 2008 the number of Texas foreclosures declined, in contrast to the sharp increases in many other states that began in lat 2006 and early 2007. Since Texas entered the recent recession in late 2008, the number of monthly foreclosures has been trending upward. But the recent jump in Texas foreclosures is in line with the levels experienced prior to 2008.
· In July 2010, the Texas foreclosure rate was one in every 819 mortgages. This was substantially better than Nevada's one in 82, Arizona's one in 167, Florida's one in 171, and California's one in 200.
Consumer Confidence Index
· U.S. consumer confidence fell by 7.2 percent from June to July 2010, and still remains weak, at a level of 50.4. Even so, nationwide consumer confidence has rebounded from its recent low at February 2009, and now stands at 6.3 percent higher than one year ago.
· The Texas region's consumer confidence index fell from 66.4 in June to 64.8 in July 2010, and is now down 8.7 percent from its level a year ago.
Oil and Natural Gas
· The all-time high crude oil closing price was $145.29 on July 3, 2008, which preceded a 7-month decline to a low point of $33.98 in February 2009.
· Natural gas and oil production tax collections combined are 26 percent lower for the first 11 months of fiscal 2010 compared to the same period in fiscal year 2009.
· Crude oil futures closed at $74.77 per barrel on August 19, 2010, three percent higher than one year ago.
· By contrast. In fiscal 2009 production tax collections for natural gas were down 48 percent over fiscal 2008. Tax collections for oil were down 39 percent.
Taxes
· Texas sales tax receipts for July 2010 were 2.2 percent higher than for July 2009..
· For fiscal 2009, state sales tax receipts are down 2.7 percent from fiscal 2008.
· Motor vehicle sales tax collections for July 2010 were 9 percent higher than for July 2009.
· The average core transaction price nationwide for a new car or truck during the first 15 days of July 2010 rose 16.8 percent to $26,574 from $22,748 in the first 15 days of July 2009.
· For the first 15 days of July 2010, total national auto sales were 481,028 units, up 4.7 percent compared to first 15 days of July 2009.
· Nationally, leases accounted for 23.4 percent of new vehicle sales in July 2010, an increase from 21.3 percent in July 2009.
Stimulus Package
· In Texas, an estimated $18 billion in federal stimulus money is flowing tp state and local governments. The Comptroller's office is tracking the $14.3 billion that comes through the state Treasury. The Comptroller's analysis is ongoing. For the latest information, visit the ARRA Web site, A Texas Eye on the Dollars.
Cap and Trade
· Efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions could negatively impact the Texas economy. The state could see 173,000 to 425,000 fewer jobs than expected in 2030 as a result of increased energy prices from the cap and trade portion of the recently proposed bill. The resulting decline in gross state product is estimated to be between $25 billion and $58 billion.
· The Comptroller's office is continuing to analyze potential implications and assess how green jobs and energy efficiency program in the proposals could offset negative impacts. For the latest information, visit the Cap and Trade Web page at the Comptroller's Internet site. (www.texasahead.org)